彼得·布兰特：未来六周对比特币至关重要

BlockBeats \u6d88\u606f\uff0c11 \u6708 18 \u65e5\uff0cWintermute \u53d1\u5e03\u62a5\u544a\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u8fc7\u53bb\u4e00\u5468\u5e02\u573a\u4e3b\u8981\u6d88\u5316 12 \u6708\u964d\u606f\u9884\u671f\u7684\u6025\u5267\u8c03\u6574\u2014\u2014\u964d\u606f\u6982\u7387\u5728\u4e00\u5468\u5185\u4ece 70% \u9aa4\u964d\u81f3 42%\uff0c\u671f\u95f4\u5b8f\u89c2\u6570\u636e\u771f\u7a7a\u653e\u5927\u4e86\u6ce2\u52a8\u3002\u9c8d\u5a01\u5c14\u5bf9 12 \u6708\u964d\u606f\u7684\u6a21\u7cca\u8868\u6001\u8feb\u4f7f\u5e02\u573a\u91cd\u65b0\u5ba1\u89c6 FOMC \u6210\u5458\u5206\u6b67\uff0c\u63ed\u793a\u964d\u606f\u8fdc\u672a\u5f62\u6210\u5171\u8bc6\u3002\u98ce\u9669\u8d44\u4ea7\u5e94\u58f0\u8d70\u5f31\uff0c\u800c\u4f5c\u4e3a\u60c5\u7eea\u98ce\u5411\u6807\u7684\u52a0\u5bc6\u5e02\u573a\u9996\u5f53\u5176\u51b2\u3002 \u8de8\u8d44\u4ea7\u8868\u73b0\u4e2d\uff0c\u6570\u5b57\u8d44\u4ea7\u6301\u7eed\u57ab\u5e95\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u5f31\u52bf\u5e76\u975e\u65b0\u73b0\u8c61\uff1a\u81ea\u521d\u590f\u8d77\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d44\u4ea7\u4fbf\u6301\u7eed\u8dd1\u8f93\u80a1\u5e02\uff0c\u90e8\u5206\u5f52\u56e0\u4e8e\u5176\u76f8\u5bf9\u4e8e\u80a1\u5e02\u7684\u8d1f\u5411\u504f\u5dee\u3002\u5f02\u5e38\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u672c\u8f6e\u4e0b\u8dcc\u4e2d BTC \u4e0e ETH \u7adf\u8dd1\u8f93\u5c71\u5be8\u5e01\u6574\u4f53\uff0c\u5176\u539f\u56e0\u53ef\u5f52\u7ed3\u4e3a\uff1a\u5c71\u5be8\u5e01\u5df2\u9634\u8dcc\u591a\u65f6\uff1b\u9690\u79c1\u5e01\u3001\u8d39\u7528\u5f00\u5173\u7b49\u7ec6\u5206\u8d5b\u9053\u4ecd\u5c55\u73b0\u5c40\u90e8\u97e7\u6027\u3002 \u90e8\u5206\u538b\u529b\u6e90\u81ea\u5de8\u9cb8\u4ed3\u4f4d\u8c03\u6574\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u56db\u5b63\u5ea6\u81f3\u6b21\u5e74\u4e00\u6708\u7684\u51cf\u6301\u5b58\u5728\u5b63\u8282\u6027\u89c4\u5f8b\uff0c\u4f46\u4eca\u5e74\u660e\u663e\u524d\u7f6e\uff0c\u56e0\u8bb8\u591a\u4ea4\u6613\u5458\u9884\u671f\u56db\u5e74\u5468\u671f\u7406\u8bba\u6697\u793a\u660e\u5e74\u5c06\u8fdb\u5165\u5e73\u6de1\u671f\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u5171\u8bc6\u5f62\u6210\u81ea\u6211\u5b9e\u73b0\uff1a\u63d0\u524d\u98ce\u63a7\u884c\u4e3a\u52a0\u5267\u4e86\u6ce2\u52a8\u3002\u9700\u660e\u786e\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u672c\u8f6e\u629b\u538b\u5e76\u65e0\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u6076\u5316\u652f\u6491\uff0c\u662f\u7eaf\u7cb9\u7531\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e3b\u5bfc\u7684\u5b8f\u89c2\u9a71\u52a8\u578b\u8c03\u6574\u3002 \u76ee\u524d\uff0c\u5b8f\u89c2\u80cc\u666f\u4f9d\u7136\u5411\u597d\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u5bbd\u677e\u6301\u7eed\u3001\u7f8e\u56fd QT \u5373\u5c06\u6536\u5b98\u3001\u8d22\u653f\u523a\u6fc0\u901a\u9053\u6d3b\u8dc3\u3001Q1 \u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u6709\u671b\u6539\u5584\u3002\u5e02\u573a\u7f3a\u5931\u7684\u5173\u952e\u4fe1\u53f7\u662f\u9f99\u5934\u8d44\u4ea7\u7684\u4f01\u7a33\u2014\u2014\u9664\u975e BTC \u91cd\u8fd4\u6ce2\u52a8\u533a\u95f4\u4e0a\u8f68\uff0c\u5426\u5219\u5e02\u573a\u5e7f\u5ea6\u96be\u4ee5\u62d3\u5c55\uff0c\u53d9\u4e8b\u903b\u8f91\u5c06\u7ef4\u6301\u77ed\u6682\u3002\u5f53\u524d\u5b8f\u89c2\u73af\u5883\u5e76\u4e0d\u7b26\u5408\u6301\u4e45\u718a\u5e02\u7279\u5f81\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u653f\u7b56\u4e0e\u5229\u7387\u9884\u671f\u6210\u4e3a\u4e3b\u8981\u50ac\u5316\u5242\uff0c\u4e00\u65e6\u9f99\u5934\u8d44\u4ea7\u91cd\u83b7\u52a8\u80fd\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u5c06\u5177\u5907\u5e7f\u6cdb\u590d\u82cf\u57fa\u7840\u3002

BlockBeats \u6d88\u606f\uff0c11 \u6708 18 \u65e5\uff0c\u94fe\u4e0a\u6570\u636e\u5206\u6790\u5e08 Murphy \u5728\u793e\u4ea4\u5a92\u4f53\u4e0a\u53d1\u6587\u8868\u793a\uff0cBTC \u7684\u76c8\u5229\u4f9b\u5e94\u767e\u5206\u6bd4\uff08PSIP\uff097 \u65e5\u5747\u503c\u5df2\u7ecf\u4f4e\u4e8e 70%\uff0c\u610f\u5473\u7740\u672c\u8f6e\u4e0b\u8dcc\u540e\uff0c\u5df2\u7ecf\u8ba9\u5168\u94fe\u8fd1 30% \u7684\u7b79\u7801\u8fdb\u5165\u4e8f\u635f\u72b6\u6001\u3002\u5982\u679c\u5254\u9664\u957f\u671f\u4e0d\u79fb\u52a8\u7684\u3001\u4e22\u5931\u7684\u4ee5\u53ca\u7c7b\u4f3c\u4e2d\u672c\u806a\u5730\u5740\u7684 BTC\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6bd4\u4f8b\u9884\u8ba1\u5c06\u8fbe\u5230 40%+\u3002 Murphy \u8865\u5145\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u8fc7\u53bb 10 \u5e74\u6765\u5468\u671f\u725b\u8f6c\u718a\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u8f6e\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0cPSIP \u90fd\u4f1a\u89e6\u53ca\u5f53\u524d\u4f4d\u7f6e\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u51fa\u73b0\u4e00\u6ce2\u60c5\u7eea\u6781\u7aef\u53d7\u538b\u540e\u7684\u53cd\u5f39\uff0c2018 \u5e74\u548c 2020 \u5e74\u90fd\u662f\u5982\u6b64\u3002\u5c24\u5176\u662f 2020 \u5e74\u8fd8\u53e0\u52a0\u4e86 519 \u9ed1\u5929\u9e45\u4e8b\u4ef6\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\u5373\u4fbf\u51fa\u73b0\u4e86\u53cd\u5f39\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u4e5f\u65e0\u6cd5\u91cd\u65b0\u5f62\u6210\u4e0a\u6da8\u8d8b\u52bf\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5e02\u573a\u4e0a\u6709\u592a\u591a\u7b79\u7801\u6392\u961f\u7b49\u5f85\u5728\u53cd\u5f39\u4e2d\u79bb\u573a\u3002

BlockBeats \u6d88\u606f\uff0c11 \u6708 18 \u65e5\uff0c\u636eOnchain Lens\u76d1\u6d4b\uff0cMt. Gox \u5730\u5740\u4e8e 7 \u5206\u949f\u524d\u518d\u6b21\u5411 Kraken \u5b58\u5165 185.52 \u679a BTC\uff0c\u4ef7\u503c 1680 \u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\u3002

BlockBeats \u6d88\u606f\uff0c11 \u6708 18 \u65e5\uff0c\u636e HTX \u884c\u60c5\u6570\u636e\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u56de\u5347\u7a81\u7834 91,000 \u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u73b0\u62a5\u4ef7 91,082 \u7f8e\u5143\u3002

BlockBeats \u6d88\u606f\uff0c11 \u6708 18 \u65e5\uff0c\u636e \u663e\u793a\uff0c\u8fc7\u53bb 4 \u5c0f\u65f6\uff0c\u4e0a\u5468\u66fe\u4e3a\u300cHyperliquid \u4e0a BTC \u6700\u5927\u591a\u5934\u300d\u5de8\u9cb8\uff080x93c\uff09\u5e73\u4ed3\u6b62\u635f\u5176\u6301\u4ed3\u89c4\u6a21\u7ea6 6400 \u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\u7684 BTC \u591a\u5355\u53ca 2110 \u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\u7684 ETH \u591a\u5355\uff0c\u5171\u5f55\u5f97\u4e8f\u635f\u7ea6 735 \u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u968f\u540e\u7528\u8d26\u6237\u5269\u4f59\u7684 130 \u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\u518d\u5f00 25 \u500d\u6760\u6746 ETH \u591a\u5355\uff0c\u5747\u4ef7 2980 \u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u6e05\u7b97\u4ef7 2919 \u7f8e\u5143\u3002 \u8be5\u5730\u5740\u81ea 11 \u6708 12 \u65e5\u8d77\u5411 Hyperliquid \u8f6c\u5165\u7ea6 800 \u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u968f\u540e\u591a\u6b21\u5c1d\u8bd5\u6284\u5e95 ETH \u5c0f\u8d5a 70 \u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u968f\u540e 13 \u65e5\u81f3 14 \u65e5\u91cd\u4ed3\u5f00\u591a BTC\u3001ETH\uff0c\u4e00\u5ea6\u6210\u4e3a Hyperliquid \u4e0a BTC \u6700\u5927\u591a\u5934\u3002

BlockBeats \u6d88\u606f\uff0c11 \u6708 18 \u65e5\uff0c\u636e\u5b98\u65b9\u6d88\u606f\uff0cBinance Alpha \u4e0a\u7ebf DGRAM\uff0c\u5e02\u503c\u6682\u62a5 2164 \u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\u3002

BlockBeats \u6d88\u606f\uff0c11 \u6708 18 \u65e5\uff0c\u636e Coinglass \u6570\u636e\uff0c\u5f53\u524d\u4e3b\u6d41 CEX\u3001DEX \u8d44\u91d1\u8d39\u7387\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u52a0\u5bc6\u5e02\u573a\u5728\u7ecf\u5386\u8fd1\u671f\u7684\u5355\u8fb9\u5927\u5e45\u4e0b\u8dcc\u540e\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u4e8e\u4eca\u6668\u521b\u4e0b\u672c\u8f6e\u4e0b\u8dcc\u4ee5\u6765\u7684\u65b0\u4f4e\uff0c\u4f46\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u5168\u9762\u770b\u7a7a\u6001\u52bf\u5168\u9762\u51cf\u5f31\uff0811 \u6708 12 \u65e5\u65f6\u51e0\u4e4e\u5747\u4e3a\u8d1f\u8d39\u7387\uff09\uff0c\u66f4\u591a\u8d44\u4ea7\u4ea4\u6613\u5bf9\u7684\u8d44\u91d1\u8d39\u7387\u5df2\u56de\u5f52\u4e2d\u6027\u3002 BlockBeats \u6ce8\uff1a\u8d44\u91d1\u8d39\u7387\uff08Funding rates\uff09\u662f\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u4ea4\u6613\u5e73\u53f0\u4e3a\u4e86\u4fdd\u6301\u5408\u7ea6\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0e\u6807\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7\u4ef7\u683c\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5e73\u8861\u800c\u8bbe\u5b9a\u7684\u8d39\u7387\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u6c38\u7eed\u5408\u7ea6\u3002\u5b83\u662f\u591a\u7a7a\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u8d44\u91d1\u4ea4\u6362\u673a\u5236\uff0c\u4ea4\u6613\u5e73\u53f0\u5e76\u4e0d\u6536\u53d6\u6b64\u8d39\u7528\uff0c\u7528\u4e8e\u8c03\u6574\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u6301\u6709\u5408\u7ea6\u7684\u6210\u672c\u6216\u6536\u76ca\uff0c\u4ee5\u4f7f\u5408\u7ea6\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0e\u6807\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7\u4ef7\u683c\u4fdd\u6301\u63a5\u8fd1\u3002 \u5f53\u8d44\u91d1\u8d39\u7387\u4e3a 0.01% \u65f6\uff0c\u8868\u793a\u57fa\u51c6\u8d39\u7387\u3002\u5f53\u8d44\u91d1\u8d39\u7387\u5927\u4e8e 0.01% \u65f6\uff0c\u4ee3\u8868\u5e02\u573a\u666e\u904d\u770b\u591a\u3002\u5f53\u8d44\u91d1\u8d39\u7387\u5c0f\u4e8e 0.005% \u65f6\uff0c\u4ee3\u8868\u5e02\u573a\u666e\u904d\u770b\u8dcc\u3002

BlockBeats \u6d88\u606f\uff0c11 \u6708 18 \u65e5\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u52a0\u5bc6\u5e02\u573a\u672c\u5468\u6301\u7eed\u627f\u538b\uff0c\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u5de8\u9cb8\u94b1\u5305\u6570\u91cf\u5374\u9006\u52bf\u6fc0\u589e\u3002Glassnode \u6570\u636e\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u81ea 10 \u6708\u672b\u8d77\u5de8\u9cb8\u6301\u7eed\u5438\u7b79\uff0c\u6301\u6709\u8d85 1000 \u679a BTC \u7684\u5730\u5740\u6570\u91cf\u81ea\u5468\u4e94\u8d77\u663e\u8457\u6500\u5347\u3002 10 \u6708 27 \u65e5\u5f53 BTC \u4ef7\u683c\u4e8e 11.4 \u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\u9ad8\u4f4d\u65f6\uff0c\u5de8\u9cb8\u94b1\u5305\u6570\u66fe\u8dcc\u81f3 1354 \u4e2a\u7684\u5e74\u5ea6\u4f4e\u70b9\u3002\u4f46\u622a\u81f3\u672c\u5468\u4e00\uff0c\u8be5\u6570\u5b57\u5df2\u53cd\u5f39 2.2% \u81f3 1384 \u4e2a\uff0c\u521b\u56db\u4e2a\u6708\u65b0\u9ad8\u3002\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0cGlassnode \u6307\u6807\u663e\u793a\u6301\u6709 1 \u679a\u4ee5\u4e0a BTC \u7684\u5c0f\u578b\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u6216\u8bb8\u662f\u629b\u538b\u7684\u6765\u6e90\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u8fd9\u7c7b\u94b1\u5305\u603b\u6570\u4ece 10 \u6708 27 \u65e5\u7684 980,577 \u4e2a\u6301\u7eed\u7f29\u51cf\uff0c\u81f3 11 \u6708 17 \u65e5\u5df2\u89e6\u53ca 977,420 \u7684\u5e74\u5ea6\u65b0\u4f4e\u3002 \u8fd9\u5370\u8bc1\u4e86\u52a0\u5bc6\u5e02\u573a\u5178\u578b\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u5373\u6563\u6237\u5728\u66b4\u8dcc\u4e2d\u6050\u614c\u6027\u629b\u552e\u65f6\uff0c\u5de8\u9cb8\u5f80\u5f80\u8d81\u673a\u5438\u7b79\u300210X Research \u521b\u59cb\u4eba Markus Thielen \u8868\u793a\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u4ecd\u5b58\u5728\u90e8\u5206\u5de8\u9cb8\u629b\u538b\uff0c\u5e76\u5f3a\u8c03\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8 10 \u6708 29 \u65e5 FOMC \u4f1a\u8bae\u5bf9\u5f53\u524d\u5e02\u573a\u5f71\u54cd\u6df1\u8fdc\uff0c\u4f1a\u8bae\u58f0\u660e\u6253\u7834\u4e86\u4e70\u5356\u53cc\u65b9\u7684\u8106\u5f31\u5e73\u8861\uff0c\u5373\u5728\u6301\u6709 1000-10000 \u679a BTC \u7684\u8d85\u7ea7\u5de8\u9cb8\u5356\u76d8\u4e0e\u6301\u6709 100-1000 \u679a BTC \u7684\u5de8\u9cb8\u4e70\u76d8\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5e73\u8861\u3002\u867d\u7136\u8d85\u5de8\u9cb8\u6b63\u5728\u627f\u63a5\u90e8\u5206\u5356\u76d8\uff0c\u4f46 30 \u65e5\u51c0\u6d41\u91cf\u6570\u636e\u663e\u793a\u5356\u76d8\u4ecd\u5360\u4e3b\u5bfc\u3002\u300d